Lessons of the Fall

(I intended to post this just after the Fall semester had ended (mid-December 2020), but things happened and it languished till now (late February 2021). I’ve left the date unchanged.)

Now that the Fall semester is over, I want to take a few minutes to reflect on how it’s gone and what I’ve learned.

Back during the summer I was extremely skeptical of anything but a fully-remote semester. I had a few reasons for my skepticism: safety for the Middlebury community (on and off campus), the value proposition for students, and profit maximization for the college being the top three. I think this semester has taught me more about those three rationales.

Profit maximization

The profit maximization argument (adding virtual seats will raise profits) still makes sense to me, though I’m much less sanguine about online education overall. As many were saying (and continue to say), doing online education well is really hard. It’s especially hard when students and teachers are under a lot of stress. I tried a new grading scheme this semester, a “labor-based grading contract”, which I think really helped my students learn and manage stress + helped me manage my workload. (One colleague described it as “a Marxist theory of grades”—not a diss from this particular colleague, I think, and not wholly inaccurate. The approach merits a deeper discussion and analysis—I think it makes sense in some classes, even without a pandemic in the background, for purely mechanism design reasons.)

Grading schemes aside, online is hard and the marginal cost of an online student is strictly positive and increasing. Perhaps at a lower rate than in person, but still. Despite my best efforts, I seem to have become an IT person—teaching a programming-oriented class requires a dedicated tech support person, and last semester that was me. So maybe the potential gains from a stronger online component are harder to achieve than I’d expected, but I think there’s still something to the idea if it’s done cleverly.

But I’m more convinced than ever that in-person will not go away. It’s just too good when it’s done right, and doing it right is easier than online. And as a teacher, it’s so nice to teach in person and get live feedback. (To be clear, I do think online classes have a role in the education ecosystem, even at small liberal arts colleges.)

Value proposition

The value proposition argument (online classes are not what students pay big $$$ for & the online-share-elasticity-of-attendance is negative on average) definitely still makes sense, and I see it kicking in with students who’d come back for the Fall deciding to opt out of the Spring. I’ve heard “I don’t think this is the kind of education I want, and it’s not what my parents are paying for” from more than a few students. But

1. the challenge of finding productive things to do while out of school (during a pandemic) is real; 

2. the institution has levers it can use to induce students to not spend too much time away; 

3. there are enough students who want to finish their degrees soon that I don't think this is as big a deal as I'd thought, at least for elite liberal arts colleges. 

Higher education budgets are still being slashed at absurd rates and I imagine institutions will take more steps toward online classes. I see more clearly than before how this will exacerbate rather than ameliorate inequality and inequity in higher education.

Community safety

I think this is the big one. When dealing with small probabilities that have large impacts, it’s hard to know exactly how much of a good outcome was luck vs. planning. Maybe the arrival quarantine and phased reopening was just right; maybe it was riskier than necessary; maybe it was too restrictive. With the data we have we might never know for sure.

One measure I think was clearly beneficial was the use of fast, clear, and strict disciplinary action for students who violated the COVID protocols. I had an undergrad professor who, during the syllabus lecture, would point to his “body count” of students he’d reported for cheating. His objective was to give a clear and credible signal that he would actually report students; the argument was something like “I’ve paid the fixed costs of learning how to navigate this system, the marginal costs are low, and here is evidence of that; cheat at your own peril”.

Midd flexed a big disciplinary action early on. The case was somewhat polarizing, with some students and parents shocked by how strict the consequences were. But my personal opinion is that it was exactly what was necessary to ensure high rates of compliance throughout the semester. While I hope no one violates the protocols this semester, I also hope that violations face similar fast, clear, and strict disciplinary actions. The rules and consequences also need to apply to all people physically present at the campus, not just students.

Where do we go from here?

Spring has started. We’ve brought students back. We seem to be leaving the phased reopening approach for a more(!) ad hoc approach. Time will tell if this worked, though the inferential challenges around “what, exactly, worked” remain. Whatever the outcome, I’m sure we’ll see good outcomes be praised as a result of a good process and bad outcomes be explained as unforeseeable/unavoidable hiccups in an otherwise-solid plan.

I really didn’t like the lack of clarity around the triggers for moving between phases—saying “we’ll adjust as necessary” doesn’t answer the question of “what would lead you to adjust up/down”—and I don’t feel like we’ve added any clarity around decision-making this semester. I’m increasingly thinking that raising tuition might be an important and necessary move for Middlebury to address issues of inequity and budget constraints, but that’s a separate conversation.

I can’t help but feel a bit bad for some of the folks in the town of Middlebury. It still doesn’t seem like they have any systematic and effective ways to have their voices heard in College decisions (like bringing students back) which affect their lives and livelihood. The College is not necessarily obligated to act in the town’s best interests, but the residents deserve formal representation. Similarly, I can’t help but feel a bit like “faculty governance” has been more of a soundbite than a meaningful feature of the decision-making process during the pandemic. I think we’ve missed an opportunity to model more inclusive governance.

All that said, it’s great to be interacting with students again, even if it’s remote. I’ve missed this. Fingers crossed for a smooth and uneventful semester!